If You Win, They Will Come: Major League Baseball and the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis

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Pouler, C. (2015). If You Win, They Will Come: Major League Baseball and the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis. Unc Charlotte Electronic Theses And Dissertations.
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Abstract

ABSTRACTThis paper extends the Knowles et al. (1992) paper titled "The Demand for Major League Baseball: A Test of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis." The main research question is to replicate, and improve, the original paper using data from the 2013 MLB season. The main improvement from the original paper is using money lines to create a subjective probability of the home team winning. The logic behind using the money lines and odds is that consumers are more likely to attend a game when the home team has a significant chance of winning. The replication examines if the relationship between attendance and the probability of the home team winning still exists after 25 years and substantial changes to the league. This paper improves upon the original methodology to include different modeling techniques, including the use of panel data to control for team and time variation, and introducing different independent variables such as interleague play, games against rivals, the number of wins each pitcher has, the betting over/under line, and the current win/loss steak of each team. These changes investigate whether any of these additional variables or new modeling techniques show that subjective winning probability is still relevant to maximizing attendance.

Details
Author

Pouler, Christopher

Title

If You Win, They Will Come: Major League Baseball and the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis

Physical Description

1 online resource (45 pages) : PDF

Date

2015

Degree Granting Institution

University of North Carolina at Charlotte

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis paper extends the Knowles et al. (1992) paper titled "The Demand for Major League Baseball: A Test of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis." The main research question is to replicate, and improve, the original paper using data from the 2013 MLB season. The main improvement from the original paper is using money lines to create a subjective probability of the home team winning. The logic behind using the money lines and odds is that consumers are more likely to attend a game when the home team has a significant chance of winning. The replication examines if the relationship between attendance and the probability of the home team winning still exists after 25 years and substantial changes to the league. This paper improves upon the original methodology to include different modeling techniques, including the use of panel data to control for team and time variation, and introducing different independent variables such as interleague play, games against rivals, the number of wins each pitcher has, the betting over/under line, and the current win/loss steak of each team. These changes investigate whether any of these additional variables or new modeling techniques show that subjective winning probability is still relevant to maximizing attendance.

Genre

masters theses

Subjects--Topics

Economics
Sports administration

Degree

M.S.

Keywords

Attendance
Baseball
Knowles
Uncertainty

Subject Area

Economics

Advisor(s)

Depken, Craid

Committee Members

Amato, Louis
Zillante, Arthur

Degree Note

Thesis (M.S.)--University of North Carolina at Charlotte, 2015.

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Rights Holder Information

Copyright is held by the author unless otherwise indicated.

Identifier

Pouler_uncc_0694N_10914

Permalink

http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.13093/etd:593